November 7, 2006 

WRTA

 Brown Shoes Diary 

Election Predictions, 2006

A week ago the Republican Party was set for its biggest defeat since 1964. Then John Kerry reported for duty. Was that enough to save the GOP?

The short answer is, "No," but thanks for trying your best, Mr. Kerry.

The Democrats need a pick-up of 15 seats to take control of the House of Representatives and to anoint Nancy Pelosi as Madame Speaker. That is a done deal. My prediction is that they'll pick up at least 20 seats despite the cheerleading you hear from Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, John from Sinking Valley, and others who, shall we say, are not particularly disinterested observers.

Voting closes in Indiana at 7 PM and the race to watch there is in Indiana's 2nd Congressional district. Incumbent Chris Chocola will likely lose and that's a shame and not just because he has the best last name in Congress. (Why didn't his parents name him, Choo-Choo?) But if Chocola wins, and he does have a chance, that could bode well for the Republicans, but still not well enough to stop them from becoming a minority party.

In Pennsylvania, there are two Congressional races to watch early. In the 8th district, Republican Mike Fitzpatrick should win against Patrick Murphy, but if he doesn't that will likely signal a very bad night for the GOP. On the other hand, if Republican Jim Gerlach retains his seat in the 6th Congressional district over Lois Murphy, that could mean the Republicans will lose fewer than 20 seats in the House and maybe even, though this is a very long shot, fewer than 15, which would keep them the majority party. It would also mean that Democrats would be filing lawsuits across the fifty states insisting that they were robbed.

In the Senate, I'm predicting a net pick-up of five for the Democrats, which will make it 50-50 in the new Senate, leaving it to Dick Cheney to decide who the majority party will be. I'll leave you in suspense by saving my prediction on that decision for another day.

Rick Santorum is toast and I mean the burnt black, butterless kind. That's a sad fact, but not as sad as realizing that Bob Casey Jr. is the new junior senator from the Keystone state. I'm guessing Rick Santorum's concession speech won't be like the famous chess grandmaster, who upon losing a match to an inferior player said, "I can't believe I lost to this idiot," and then promptly urinated on the chess board. But I wouldn't blame him if it came to that. Santorum, however, should take consolation in the fact that, despite being from a blue state, he has been the most conservative member of the Senate for two terms. Yes, he has compromised his principles a few times, but remarkably few given the nature of politics. To Mr. Santorum, I say thank-you, and wish him an even better career outside of politics.

The toss-up senatorial races are Maryland and Virginia. I think they'll both go democratic. Republican Steele in Maryland has waged a flawless campaign, but faces an overwhelmingly democratic state. He could pull it out, but the call here is that he won't. A similar result will occur in Virginia where George Allen ran on the opposite strategy of Mr. Steele--a really, really bad campaign making as many missteps as a millipede on drugs. Personally, I never much cared for Mr. Allen or any other politician "drawn" to office on daddy's name. That list is a long one, I know, but I just don't feel de facto primogeniture has a place in American government.

So when the dust clears in the morning, expect to hear a few hundred renditions of "Happy Days are Here Again." For the Democrats, the gains are just the beginning as full control of the Senate and occupancy at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is theirs for the taking in 2008. Perhaps even better news for the Democrats are their pick-ups in state offices and governorships, which will give them the power of redistricting in 2010.

For my Republican friends, don't despair. Remember that out of the ashes of the 1964 massacre was born the political career of the greatest president of the 20th century. Remember also that politics is a process and long-run success can only come about by having sound principles and acting on them every day. That's the strategy that brought Ronald Reagan to the Presidency in 1980 and the Republican Party to House Majority in 1994.  It can do it again.

The opinions and ideas expressed in this essay are those of John D McGinnis and should not be considered representative of WRTA.com, any institution with which McGinnis is associated, or anyone else.  He can be contacted at john@wrta.com. This essay also appears at the Penn Patriot blog.  
 

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